Archive for the 'blog' Category

20
Mar

Economy drives families together under one roof

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The recession slowed most homebuilding in the United States to a standstill but it has fueled demand for a special kind of housing: the granny flat.

As unemployment hovers around 10 percent and healthcare costs spiral upward, homebuyers like Stephanie Charbeneau want to cut costs by sharing shelter with her extended family.

Charbeneau, a 27-year-old court recording monitor in New Haven, Connecticut, is buying a home with her husband, their two young children and her in-laws because money is tight.

"Everything is so expensive, you need your family to help you out. Thank God that they're there to help you," she said.

The Charbeneaus and Stephanie's in-laws plan to split the mortgage on a $337,000 two-family home with an apartment her brother-in-law may rent. It is a bigger and newer house than the couple could afford on their own.

They are not alone. Almost 70 percent of Coldwell Banker Real Estate agents see economic concerns compelling more families to seek housing together in 2010, according to a January poll.

At least in the short term, multi-generational housing demand is a boon for homebuilders, architects and developers mired in the deepest housing slump since the Great Depression.

The recession is accelerating a long-standing trend. U.S. multi-generational households jumped 24 percent from 2000 to 6.2 million in 2008, or 5.3 percent of all households, according to AARP, the nonprofit organization for people 50 and over. Economics and culture were the main motivators.

A prolonged push for bigger and fewer homes "would dampen housing demand going forward and further dampen a substantial recovery in the housing market," said Nicolas Retsinas, director of Harvard's joint center for housing studies.

ONE BIGGER HAPPY FAMILY

Opportunity for homebuilders and manufacturers hurts senior housing, a business aimed at about 78 million baby-boomers, as more elderly people avoid costly managed care.

"We can't afford to put grandma in a nursing home now," said Monte Anderson, a Texas developer. He plans to include 50 apartments offering separate living quarters, called "granny flats", for an older parent or adult child in a 500-unit project south of Dallas.

In Jeffersonville, Indiana, beauty salon owner Karen Carden, her husband and 19-year-old college student daughter expect to buy a larger home, hopefully with no steps, with Karen's 84-year-old father.

"Assisted living is not an option for my dad. He didn't retire with that kind of income," she said.

Senior housing occupancy rates fell to 89 percent from a peak of 93 percent at the end of 2006 and early 2007, according to data from the National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry default payday loan. One major operator, Sunrise Senior Living Inc, had to sell off assets and is in restructuring talks with lenders.

The expense of managed care is driving much of the demand for multi-generational housing, but more adult children are also bunking in with parents.

"The empty nest is a historical relic," said Stephen Reily, chief executive of VibrantNation.com, a Website aimed at women over 50 based in Louisville, Kentucky.

Two-thirds of the boomer women it polled had at least one adult child living with them, and half of those children brought their own kids along. On top of that, parents or in-laws also lived in 13 percent of these households.

COTTAGE INDUSTRY

If this trend continues, only 5.4 million new households will form over the next five years compared with the 6.9 million that more normal conditions would produce, Michael Hakim, an analyst at PPR Global, projected. That equals a loss of more than one year's average household creation, he said.

A shrinking number of households would ultimately hurt builders. But for now, the housing industry is running to meet demand for families looking to merge resources under one roof.

Homebuilders are seeing more buyers in groups that include a parent, said Toll Brothers Inc Nevada division head Gary Mayo. Interest is up in products such as KB Home's Open Series, with up to six bedrooms, and Pulte Homes Inc's "casitas" featuring an extra bedroom, full bath and closet that can serve as living quarters.

Those who cannot afford a new home are remodeling the one they have, said Bill Gati, an architect in New York City who helps clients convert part of their house to an apartment.

Manufacturers have responded by tweaking such tools as the grab bar, which enhances access to shower and toilet, to lessen their institutional look, said Melissa Birdsong of Lowe's Companies Inc.

Wide doors and entrances without steps aid accessibility for those on wheels, be they wheelchair, walker or stroller, said Trina Summins, an Atlanta-based builder working on a home that features a ground-floor suite for parents to move into.

The goal is to share responsibilities while maintaining some boundaries.

Anderson's apartments provide separation between the generations. "I can take care of you, but I don't have to live with you," he said.

(Editing by James Dalgleish)

Economy drives families together under one roof

Hot News: Prince Harry hopes to join troops on Pole trek

18
Mar

Bernanke: Fed should oversee big and small banks

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Federal Reserve needs to supervise banks of all sizes so it can stay on top of the markets and the economy, the central bank’s chairman, Ben Bernanke, said in testimony prepared for a hearing on Wednesday.

“The Federal Reserve’s participation in the oversight of banks of all sizes significantly improves its ability to carry out its central banking functions, including making monetary policy, lending through the discount window, and fostering financial stability,” Bernanke said in testimony prepared for a House Financial Services Committee hearing about the Fed’s role in bank supervision.

A Look at the Fed’s Bank Examiners

WSJ’s Dennis Berman and colleague Evan Newmark take on the Fed — namely the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, which Berman recently visited in the hopes of better understanding the people securing the front lines of the broken financial system.

“Because of its wide range of expertise, the Federal Reserve is uniquely suited to supervise large, complex financial organizations and to address both safety and soundness risks and risks to the stability of the financial system as a whole.”

Bernanke continues to defend the Federal Reserve from Senate legislation that seeks to remove some of its authority to oversee banks paperless payday loans. The bank reform bill introduced by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., on Monday would remove the Fed’s oversight of smaller state-chartered banks, permitting it to only continue to oversee and conduct on-site exams for 35 largest banks with $50 billion or more in assets.

That wording, however, is an improvement from the Fed’s point of view, over the legislation Dodd introduced in November. That original bill would have removed all the Fed’s supervision authority over banks so it could concentrate only on monetary policy. The House bank reform bill approved in December retains the Fed’s authority to supervise banks and conduct monetary policy. Dodd plans to have senators on the banking committee vote on the bill next week. He hopes to have legislation approved by the full Senate by spring.

The Fed oversees roughly 5,000 bank holding companies and about 850 state-chartered banks.

Bernanke: Fed should oversee big and small banks

12
Mar

Financial Stocks: Regional banks gain, Citi stock pares gains

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — U.S. regional bank shares added to weekly gains Thursday, while Citigroup shares moved higher as investors cheered Chief Executive Vikram Pandit’s relatively upbeat outlook.

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The gains in bank stocks helped the financial sector outperform the broader market. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund , an exchange-traded fund that tracks the financial stocks in the S&P 500 , rose 0.5% while the broader index added 0.2%.

Shares of Huntington Bancshares added 2.9%, Fifth Third Bancorp rose 2% and KeyCorp rose 2.8%.

Regional banks had rallied in the previous session after a report suggested Britain’s Barclays was hunting for a retail bank acquisition. Also, several bank executives were speaking at a Citi investment conference in New York City this week.

News Hub: Credit Markets Come Back to Life

Credit markets are showing signs of life after a year of lows and two years after the collapse of Bear Stearns auto loan. Grianne McCarthy tells the News Hub panel why U.S. companies are feeling more confident about the economy.

Citigroup shares climbed 4% to $4.12 after Pandit said that the banking giant should be able to cover future credit losses in its troubled local consumer lending business. There are “early signs of improvement” in the division, he said at the conference. See story on Citi CEO’s remarks

The stock came off its intra-day high of $4.16 after the CEO said the U.S. government may sell its 27% stake in the banking giant. See pulse on possible government sale of Citi stake

Citi shares have advanced 18% this week and 25% for the year-to-date, bolstered by reports Wednesday that a sale of trust preferred securities had gone well.

The SPDR KBW Bank ETF has benefited from the rally in Citi and other banks. That ETF is up about 19% for the year-to-date and is one of the best-performing ETFs in recent months. Read more about financial and bank ETFs

Earlier this week, the KBW Bank ETF hit a fresh 52-week high. On Thursday, it rose as high as $25.21. Its next hurdle is $25.44, which it last traded in November 2008.

Financial Stocks: Regional banks gain, Citi stock pares gains

26
Feb

Visteon turns in 4Q profit

VAN BUREN TOWNSHIP, Mich. – Auto parts supplier Visteon Corp. posted a fourth-quarter profit Friday, helped by cost-cutting moves and the hints of a recovery in the global auto industry.

Visteon said it earned $276 million, or $2.12 per share, after a loss of $346 million, or $2.67 per share in the year-ago quarter. The 2008 quarter was affected by a $200 million charge related to its business making interior parts for vehicles.

Sales grew 23 percent to $2.03 billion. The company said sales improved across all major regions where it sells parts, a trend Visteon said was a sign that industry and broader economic conditions are getting better.

Visteon, the top supplier to and a former subsidiary of Ford Motor Co sears kerosene heaters., filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in May following a sharp downturn in the U.S. market for cars and trucks. However, overall sales began to pick up last in 2009.

Cost-cutting measures from Visteon’s restructuring also helped the quarterly results. That included a $133 million gain from terminating some employee benefit programs.

For all of 2009, Visteon earned $184 million, or 98 cents per share.

Shares of Visteon, which trade on over-the-counter markets, more than doubled in morning trading, rising 7.6 cents to nearly 14.8 cents per share.

Visteon turns in 4Q profit

Hot News: Royal Bank of Scotland loses $5.5 billion in 2009

09
Feb

Feds Bullard: May see asset sales late 2010

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve could sell some assets later this year in an effort to whittle down its bloated balance sheet to avoid inflation, a senior Federal Reserve official said on Monday.

The Fed's purchases last year of longer-term Treasuries and other debt, undertaken to help revive the economy, were financed by adding cash to the financial system. But leaving large amounts of cash sloshing around as the economy strengthens risks fueling inflation.

"Maybe you get in the second half of 2010 or something like that, if things are going pretty well, maybe then you'd sell a little bit at that point and you'd try to see how the market reacts," St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard told Reuters in an interview.

The U.S. central bank should try to get its balance sheet, which has ballooned by more than $1 trillion, down to a normal size before the next recession strikes to ensure it has the ammunition it needs to counter a downturn, Bullard said.

After the Fed slashed interest rates to near zero in late 2008, it launched a buying spree that also included mortgage-backed securities and debt issued by housing finance agencies to provide further support for the economy.

SALES BEFORE RATE HIKES

Bullard, who is a voting member on the Fed's policy-setting panel this year, said his preference would be to begin selling some assets before raising interest rates, although he said not all Fed policymakers were likely to see it his way.

He said the idea would be not only to get the balance sheet back to a pre-crisis size, but to return it to holdings of mostly U.S. Treasury securities.

The St. Louis Fed chief has long been an advocate of more actively managing the Fed's assets — either by selling them or by leaving open the option of buying more if the economy stumbles anew. The consensus view at the Fed favors shuttering the purchase programs as planned and relying on rate hikes initially to tighten financial conditions.

However, with an economic recovery seemingly on track, Bullard made clear officials had begun to debate how best to normalize the Fed's balance sheet. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke could shed more light on the central bank's plans in congressional testimony on Wednesday.

Bullard said markets would be disrupted if they came to believe the Fed was planning large-scale sales of mortgage-backed securities. However, he said the idea of gradual sales as a strategy is under discussion.

"Selling has more sympathy than you might think free credit report online. It's more a question of timing and speed," Bullard said.

"You'd kind of want the situation to be back to normal in some kind of time frame before the next storm comes for the economy so that at that point you'd have a fresh set of tools and you can react at that point," he said. "There will be a lot more discussion going forward about how exactly to do this."

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS SEEN RISING

The Fed's unprecedented policy actions helped lift the U.S. economy out of its deepest downturn since the 1930s. After contracting for four straight quarters, the economy grew at a 2.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter of last year and a 5.7 percent pace in the final three months of the year.

Bullard said the economy should grow at an annual rate above 3 percent in the first half of this year, adding that unemployment may have peaked. The U.S. jobless rate dropped to 9.7 percent in January from 10 percent in December.

The Fed is scheduled to wrap up its purchases of $1.43 trillion in mortgage-related securities by the end of next month. The program was undertaken to lower mortgage rates and prop up the struggling housing market.

Bullard said he does not expect a substantial jump in mortgage rates when the program ends, as some fear.

"I think it will be seamless," he said.

Further emphasizing his concerns about preventing inflation, Bullard said inflation expectation are at or above the Fed's implicit target range. Central bankers lay great stress on holding inflation expectations in check because they believe doing so is key to keeping inflation at bay.

"If the data keep coming in as expected and the economy keeps improving, then those will continue to ratchet up unless the central bank sends some signals that, 'No, we intend to keep inflation close to target,'" he said.

Bullard said that if the rise in inflation expectations began to look troubling, the Fed could discard its pledge to hold interest rates exceptionally low for an extended period, even if unemployment remained high.

"We know that the expectations are very important to how these things evolve, and so if those started to get out of hand, we really have to come back in and send a signal to the market," he said. "It would trump everything."

Fed’s Bullard: May see asset sales late 2010

06
Feb

Earnings Preview: Lorillard Inc.

RICHMOND, Va. – Lorillard Inc., the nation’s third-biggest cigarette company, reports its fourth-quarter results before the stock market opens Monday.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Any sign the maker of Newport cigarettes is losing market share loss among menthols or gaining in the discount segment — and any sign that cigarette volumes are rebounding from sharp drops in volume experienced industrywide in 2009 due to a federal tax hike.

Analysts believe the Greensboro, N.C., company continues to have the industry’s best outlook for profit margin, price per pack and volume.

Despite the Food and Drug Administration’s pending study on the public health impact of menthol, the segment continues to grow as the rest of the cigarette market shrinks. A scientific committee being organized by the FDA must study and issue a report on the public health impact of menthol cigarettes.

The top two U.S. cigarette companies — No. 1 Philip Morris USA, owned by Richmond, Va business cards.’s Altria Group Inc., and No. 2 Reynolds American Inc., based in Winston-Salem, N.C. — are ramping up efforts to grab some of the menthol market away from Lorillard.

Lorillard is working to grow its Maverick discount brand as the weak economy and high unemployment have caused some consumers to switch to lower-priced brands.

WHY IT MATTERS: As demand for cigarettes continues to fall, any rebound in volumes could signal consumers are adjusting to April’s 62-cents-per-pack federal tax hike, which most cigarette makers accompanied with price hikes.

WHAT’S EXPECTED: Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters on average expect Lorillard to earn $1.51 per share on revenue of $1.23 billion.

LAST YEAR’S QUARTER: Lorillard reported profit of $1.53 per share on revenue of $1.09 billion.

Earnings Preview: Lorillard Inc.

26
Jan

Opel unions issue strike warning over factory closure

ANTWERP, Belgium (AFP) – Unions at General Motors unit Opel on Tuesday warned widespread strike action is a possibility as they refused to accept a planned Belgian plant closure at the troubled carmaker.

"A strike is the last resort, but management has to realise that we will undertake all manner of (industrial) action — and that can include strikes," said Peter Scherrer of the European Metalworkers' Federation (EMF).

"There will be neither sacrifice nor concession by the unions, by the workers at other plants, if the decision is not overturned," Scherrer said in Antwerp after a meeting also assembling Austrian, British, German, Hungarian, Polish and Spanish unions.

The company announced last week its intention to close down an auto factory in Antwerp, probably by the summer, with the loss of 2,600 jobs.

That decision was accompanied by a switch in production for a line of sports utility vehicles (SUVs) to South Korea, against which unions have embarked on legal action new car loans.

Scherrer said workers at other GM Europe plants had agreed not to fill in for Antwerp workers during any stoppage.

"We make the GM management aware of a long history of European solidarity in common action," read a joint declaration by labour movements representing workers at Opel and Vauxhall. "This will be exercised if necessary."

The statement was signed by the European Employee Forum (EEF), the EMF and the European unions and works councils represented at GM Europe.

Opel unions issue strike warning over factory closure

23
Jan

Market Snapshot: U.S. stocks drop for third straight session

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Stocks closed with steep losses for a third straight day Friday, paced by technology shares, which suffered from analyst downgrades and sky-high earnings expectations.

The selling picked up in the afternoon as fears swirled regarding the possibility that Ben Bernanke might not get confirmed to a second term as Federal Reserve chairman.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 216.90, or 2.1%, to 10,172.98, off 5.2% over its three-day slide. For the week, the Dow was off 4.1%.

Hot Stocks: Energy under pressure

Energy stocks end a punishing week with more losses as a result of lower crude prices, broader-market weakness and less-than-inspiring results from Schlumberger. MarketWatch’s Steve Gelsi reports.

The S&P 500 Index plunged 2.2% to 1,091.75, off 3.9% for the week. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index ended down 2.7%, the worst decline of the major indexes. It was hurt in part by a 5.7% slide in Google , despite the Internet giant’s surge in fourth-quarter earnings. The company’s earnings and revenue came in well above analysts’ estimates, but investors seemed to have been looking for more.

“Expectations have gotten elevated over the last three quarters and it becomes a very tough short-term bar to clear,” said Jeff Markunas, portfolio manager of the RidgeWorth Large Cap Core Equity Fund. “There’s been a lot of nit-picking.”

Also weighing on the tech sector: Citigroup cut its ratings on seven semiconductor-equipment stocks, citing the risk of a correction of perhaps 30% in the sector for the short term, though a broader bullish trend remains intact.

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Of the companies downgraded by Citi, the hardest hit were Entegris , off 11 payday loans with no fax.9%; Brooks Automation , off 9.6%; and Applied Materials , off 7%.

The declines in major averages gathered some steam in late afternoon as President Barack Obama spoke at a town hall meeting regarding his plan to impose tougher limits on big banks’ speculative activity. His proposal fueled a 213-point slide in the Dow when it was unveiled on Thursday and continued to be a hot topic among investors during the latest trading session.

Investors also weighed reports that some congressional Democrats are growing skittish about confirming Bernanke to a second term as Fed chairman.

“The chief sponsor of the economy, the Fed, will be in disarray if Bernanke doesn’t get reappointed,” said strategist Bruce Bittles, of R.W. Baird & Co. “That’s a big concern for investors right now.”

Financial bellwethers extended the previous session’s sharp losses. Goldman Sachs Group was down 4.2%, while Bank of America , which focuses more on traditional banking, was off 3.7%.

General Electric rose 0.6% after reporting fourth-quarter earnings above analysts’ estimates and forecasting a return to growth in 2011. McDonald’s , meanwhile, climbed 0.3%. The fast-food giant’s fourth-quarter earnings rose 23% as same-store sales climbed across all its regions.

American Express fell 8.5% despite a tripling in its quarterly net income. The report topped Wall Street estimates, but fell short of investor expectations. The market may have already priced in the improvements, anticipating the credit card issuer’s strengthening, analysts said.

In other markets Friday, crude-oil prices fell below $75 per barrel. Gold futures also slipped.

The dollar weakened against both the euro and the yen, while Treasurys were little changed. The 10-year note was recently off 2/32 to yield 3.601%.

Market Snapshot: U.S. stocks drop for third straight session

21
Jan

Fed defends actions in AIG case, invites inquiry

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Federal Reserve officials on Tuesday launched a vigorous defense of their dealings with American International Group (AIG.N), calling for a Congressional audit and denying any inappropriate action with respect to payments the bailed-out insurer made to banks.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke invited a full Congressional audit of the U.S. central bank's dealings with AIG and the New York Fed turned over 250,000 pages of documents to a House committee that has scheduled a hearing on the matter next week.

The U.S. House of Representatives Oversight and Government Reform Committee is investigating whether the New York Fed improperly limited public disclosures about payments to banks to unwind $62.1 billion in AIG credit default swaps.

In a lengthy memo posted on its website, the New York Fed contested a number of basic points that had been reported earlier after a batch of emails was released by a lawmaker that appeared to show the New York Fed counseled AIG not to reveal it was paying banks 100 cents on the dollar on credit default swaps it had written.

The New York Fed said it was "incorrect" to say that as a result of its actions, AIG did not tell the Securities and Exchange Commission that it was paying banks including Goldman Sachs Inc (GS overnight pay day loans.N) 100 cents on the dollar for swaps contracts.

AIG, in filings with the SEC, said the securities were being bought by letting banks retain collateral and by making cash payments that — taken together — roughly equaled the full value of the swaps, the Fed said.

The New York Fed also disputed charges that it leaned on AIG not to make required disclosures to regulators about the transactions.

"Some have … suggested that the (New York Fed) pressured AIG not to make required disclosures about material elements of the Maiden lane III transactions," the Fed said, referring to the special entity it set up to fund the rescue of AIG swaps contracts.

"This is also incorrect," the New York Fed asserted.

The central bank further denied that it was as a result of pressure from it that AIG sought to keep the names of the counterparties under wraps.

When pressed to disclose the names by the SEC, AIG sought confidentiality, fearing those firms and others might sever businesses ties over a breach of trust, the New York Fed said.

Fed defends actions in AIG case, invites inquiry

16
Jan

Stocks & Bonds: Dow Plunges 100 Points on JPMorgan’s News

Stock prices fell sharply on Friday, the worst day of trading this year, as worries over the strength of the American consumer eclipsed a round of mostly positive earnings reports.

On its surface, the news that JPMorgan Chase had doubled its 2009 profits from 2008 might seem reason for elation among investors. But on Friday, Wall Street traders took one look at the results and began to sell.

By the end of trading, the three major indexes were down about 1 percent, with the Dow Jones industrial average falling nearly 101 points. The dollar strengthened, and bond yields fell.

Traders saw promise and peril in JPMorgan Chase’s financial report. The bank said it earned $11.7 billion last year and that its profit quadrupled in the fourth quarter, beating expectations. But the firm’s chief executive noted that losses on consumer loans remained high and would remain an issue in 2010.

“It does continue to bring up old fears,” said James W. Paulsen, chief investment strategist for Wells Capital Management.

The Dow Jones industrial average declined 0.94 percent, or 100.90 points, to 10,609.65. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index fell 1.08 percent, or 12.43 points, to 1,136.03. The Nasdaq composite index dropped 1.24 percent, or 28.75 points, to 2,287.99.

For the week, the Dow industrials slipped 0.1 percent, the S.& P. 500 index lost 0.8 percent and the Nasdaq fell 1.3 percent.

All sectors posted losses, with shares of banks leading the retreat. JPMorgan Chase declined 2.26 percent, and Bank of America fell 3.33 percent. Many banks will report earnings next week.

Two weeks into the new year, Wall Street finds itself searching for direction. Over the next few weeks, companies will continue to announce fourth-quarter earnings, and the results are expected to be mostly positive.

Expectations this quarter, however, have shifted, and investors are looking for indications that businesses have moved beyond cost-cutting and have started to bring in revenue.

After the market closed on Thursday, Intel reported a 28 percent increase in revenue and the largest gross profit margin in its history. Overnight, its shares climbed, but they closed down 3 payday cash loans.17 percent on Friday.

That seemingly irrational behavior, selling even as a company exceeds expectations, brought an adage to the minds of several investors: “Buy the rumor, sell the news.”

“It is an interesting juxtaposition,” said Hank B. Smith, chief investment officer for Haverford Investments. “These all beat expectations, but by the time all the news is disseminated, there’s concern this may be the peak for profit margins for these companies.”

Mr. Smith said he did not believe the worries were valid. But he said Wall Street’s negative reaction to the cheery reports could indicate that investors were using the earnings season as a selling opportunity.

“It would be healthy for the market to consolidate and pull back,” Mr. Smith said. “It’s very normal to have a correction — defined as 10 percent or more — in a bull market.”

After an energetic rebound in the stock market last year, equities are expected to rise modestly through 2010. The Dow is approaching a psychologically important milestone — 11,000 points, a level not seen since before the financial crisis — and the S.& P.’s 500-stock index is nearing 1,150 points.

Economic data released on Friday provided little relief from investors’ concerns over profits. A report said manufacturing activity fell slightly in December, and a barometer of consumer sentiment released by the University of Michigan rose slightly this month but fell short of expectations.

Still, there were signs that the near-zero interest rates may remain in place for some time, a boon for stocks. A Labor Department report suggested inflation was largely in check, with consumer prices increasing just 0.1 percent in December.

Interest rates were lower Friday. The Treasury’s 10-year note rose 15/32, to 97 16/32, and the yield fell to 3.68 percent from 3. 74 percent late Thursday.

United States markets are closed on Monday for Martin Luther King’s Birthday.

Stocks & Bonds: Dow Plunges 100 Points on JPMorgan’s News

Hot News: London Markets: Man Group underperforms in mildly higher FTSE 100

15
Jan

Waning volatility favors Gap, Ford stocks: analyst

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — A calmer environment for stock trading, illustrated by the VIX near mid-2008 lows, should benefit stocks distinguished by potential earnings strength and price momentum — a varied group including Gap Inc., Ford Motor Co. and Goldman Sachs, say analysts at Bank of America Merrill-Lynch.

Stock Market Volatility Suggests Higher Prices

Key measures of stock market volatility, such as the Vix and VStoxx, indicate that stocks are likely to climb. But a consensus view of a 10% rise could be wrong.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index , which uses options contracts based on the S&P 500 index to measure market expectations of near-term volatility, has fallen 18.6% since the start of the year to 17.65. Earlier this week it breached the 17 level, a first since May 2008.

The decline in the index, often dubbed Wall Street’s fear gauge, reflects a steep rise in investor confidence as stocks rebounded from multiyear lows hit in March 2008, battered by the credit crisis and U.S. recession.

U.S. stocks, as measured by the S&P 500, have gained 36% in the past year and have surged 72% off their March lows. The VIX, meanwhile, has fallen 64% in the past year.

Cyclical sectors — or industries seen as benefiting from the early stages of an economic recovery — have led the way. Of the S&P 500’s 10 industry groups, tech, materials and consumer discretionary sectors have gained the most in the past year.

The drop in the VIX “has been associated with the outperformance of pro-economy types of sectors and the lagging behavior of healthcare, staples and more defensive stocks,” said Myles Zyblock, chief institutional strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

He thinks that trend has more room to run.

But further declines in the VIX could lay the groundwork for a different type of stock-picking strategy.

Focus on fundamentals

B. of A. quantitative strategist Savita Subramanian wrote Wednesday that “the likeliest direction for the VIX is a continued decline over the next 12 months” and suggested this extended drop will favor investing strategies that select stocks attractive in terms of their price momentum and their prices compared to past earnings no teletrack payday loans.

A focus on more fundamental measures contrasts with last year, when the dramatic drop in the VIX favored stocks seen as riskier, such as those with small sizes, and those that carried high betas. A high beta indicates a stock tends to make wilder swings than the broader market.

To pick the best stocks for a period of low volatility, B. of A. analysts screened stocks using strategies that seemed to work best in the 2004 to 2006 period.

These included those that were in the top quartile of the S&P 500 based on price momentum, which essentially shows how much these stocks have started to rise; whether Wall Street stock analysts were increasing their earnings estimates for the companies; and valuation based on earnings and cash flow yield. They also had to be rated “buy” by B. of A. stock analysts.

The list includes a handful of consumer oriented stocks — including Gap , Priceline.com , and Ford Motor Co. — as well as miner Freeport McMoRan , brokerage Goldman Sachs Group Inc. , paper company MeadWestvaco and energy company Anadarko Petroleum Corp. .

Shares in Gap have gained 72% over the last 12 months. Priceline has surged 202%; Ford Motor shares have ballooned 420% and Goldman Sachs shares have gained 123%.

The S&P 500, in contrast, has gained 36%.

In Thursday’s trading, major stock indexes rose to new 15-month highs, though most sectors struggled for direction as investors awaited the after-hours release of Intel Corp. .

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 30 points, or 0.3%, to 10,711. The Nasdaq Composite gained 9 points, or 0.4%, to 2,317. The S&P 500 added 3 points, or 0.2%, to 1,148.

Waning volatility favors Gap, Ford stocks: analyst

Hot News: Techs lead Wall St higher; Intel up after results

09
Jan

Wall St rises to new highs on recovery hopes

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. stocks rose on Friday after trading in the red most of the day as investors concluded weak December jobs data wouldn't interrupt a trend of steady economic recovery.

The S&P 500 and the Dow hit new 15-month highs while the Nasdaq climbed to its highest level in 16 months.

The economy unexpectedly shed 85,000 jobs in December, but analysts said this was not inconsistent with a slowly recovering economy as the pace of monthly jobs losses have declined sharply since the height of the recession.

In addition, November's payrolls report was revised to a gain in jobs, bolstering that view.

"I don't think that we should expect that we're going to go up in a straight line," said Linda Duessel, market strategist at Federated Investors in Pittsburgh. "Last month of course was revised up. This one will probably get revised at least in a more positive direction."

The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) rose 11.33 points, or 0.11 percent, at 10,618.19. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (.SPX) climbed 3.29 points, or 0.29 percent, at 1,144.98. The Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) added 17.12 points, or 0.74 percent, at 2,317.17.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected no non-farm job losses in December from the previous month. A weaker report is also supportive of the view that Federal Reserve will keep interest rates low for a prolonged period, which is favorable for stocks.

Losses were also curbed after shipping company United Parcel Service Inc (UPS.N) boosted its fourth-quarter outlook and said it will cut 1,800 jobs. Its shares rose nearly 5 percent and lifted hopes of strong corporate earnings when Alcoa Inc (AA.N) kicks off the reporting season on Monday.

The first week of the year got off to a positive start. For the week the Dow rose 1.8 percent, the S&P added 2.7 percent, while the Nasdaq rose 2 percent.

The news from UPS also helped shares in rival Fedex Corp (FDX.N), which rose 2.5 percent to $84.99, and boosted the Dow Jones Transportation average ( allstate insurance.DJT) 1.8 percent.

Both UPS and FedEx are economic bellwethers because they reflect trends in business and consumer spending.

Biotechnology companies were among top gainers on the Nasdaq.

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (TEVA.TA) (TEVA.O) gained 4.4 percent to $59.34 a day after the world's largest generic drugmaker set a revenue target for 2015 of $31 billion, more than double its current annual amount.

Genzyme Corp (GENZ.O) advanced for a second day after a source said billionaire investor Carl Icahn was considering a proxy battle at the biotech company. [ID:nN07196523] Genzyme was up 5.2 percent to $53.81 after a 4.4 percent advance on Thursday.

Also helping the Nasdaq, Morgan Stanley started the healthcare services sector with an 'attractive' view. Part of that call included an 'overweight' rating for Express Scripts (ESRX.O), which rose 3.4 percent to $91.65.

Investors will now turn their attention to reports on fourth-quarter earnings, which starts with Alcoa after the bell on Monday.

Since the start of the year, analysts have revised up their earnings estimates for seven out of ten S&P sectors. Healthcare, financials, and consumer staples are the only three sectors to see declines, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

Alcoa's shares rose 2.5 percent to $17.02.

Volume was light on the New York Stock Exchange, with slightly less than 1 billion shares changing hands, compared with last year's estimated daily average of 2.18 billion. On the Nasdaq, about 2.16 billion shares traded, above last year's daily average of 1.63 billion.

Advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a ratio of about 3 to 2, while advancing stocks beat decliners on the Nasdaq by about 7 to 4.

(Reporting by Edward Krudy; Editing by Kenneth Barry)

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